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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."