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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.